Wedding Blog
I just watched my first ever episode of Tyra (this is what happens when Mr. Bluebell has plans & I don’t - also, has anyone seen Tori & Dean: Inn Love?? Man, I’m hooked!!!)…and the theme of the episode was DOOMED FOR DIVORCE 
(yes, with a scary graphic and everything). In addition to picking at every potential issue in two poor couples’ relationships, there was an “Are YOU doomed for divorce?” quiz which was, I am ashamed to admit, the real hook that kept me watching.
The quiz questions were:
1) Have you attended college? (If yes, risk of divorce decreases by 13%)
If Yes: give yourself 1 point
2) Is your annual income over $50,000? (If yes, risk of divorce decreases by 30%)
If Yes: give yourself 4 points
3) Do you have a religious affiliation? (If yes, risk of divorce decreases by 14%)
If Yes: give yourself 1 point
4) Are your parents still married? (If yes, risk of divorce decreases by 14%)
If Yes: give yourself 1 point
5) Were you married/will your first marriage be after the age of 25? (If yes, risk of divorce decreases by 24%)
If Yes: give yourself 3 points
Scoring:
If you scored less than 4 points you are “doomed for divorce”
If you scored between 5 and 7 you might have some issues, but can potentially work it out
If you scored between 8 and 10 you’re probably fine
Is anyone else underwhelmed by this quiz?? Isn’t this a perfect example for a statistics teacher on how not to use statistics? The first two questions especially irk me as they seem to be saying “unless you’re really rich and well educated, then your love life is going to suck too!” which, honestly, does not seem particularly helpful or even relevant. Because wouldn’t everyone rather make lots of money, have happily married parents, and a fabulous education? So don’t tell me that just because I don’t have something else that would be nice, that I have no chance at a successful marriage!! Because whether or not there is a statistical correlation - you can’t really prove causation, not to mention that even if all of your percentages show that you have a higher risk of divorce than someone else, that doesn’t mean you will get divorced.
Okay, I seem to be taking my Tyra a bit too seriously.
But most of these questions are based on circumstances that a) you can’t easily “fix” and b) they have nothing at all to do with who your partner is. Wouldn’t you think that an individual who scores a 10 based on these questions might still marry the wrong guy on occasion? Or that a 0 might find their perfect mate? Or that Mrs. Bluebell needs to stop watching Tyra if she just can’t handle it? 
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Wow, I am shocked at my score (I just pulled it out at the last question because I will be a few months away from 26 when we get hitched).
I wouldn’t take Tyra too seriously though. I love ANTM, but her talkshow is insane because she tries too hard to be Oprah.
I must say that from looking at some of the main reasons people get divorced money is a top issue. That being said haveing an income over 50K would probably decrease those issues.
I have also heard that if you are married before the age of 21 your chances for divorce are 80 %. I took a marriage course in college so I am full of fun facts on this issue.
Maaaan, this is awesome. I watched her show once, but changed it when I saw “Arthur” (you know, the one with the aardvark?) was on another channel.
Screw you, Tyra!! 
Well, it is a stupid use of statistics, and Tyra is no Oprah (and I don’t even think that much of Oprah and her “Everyone should be grateful for my existence” attitude), but really, whoever the source and whatever the statistics, your particular situation is always unique. The Pill is 99% effective…but that also means 1 in 100 women will find it ineffective. And to that 1 woman, the statistics mean nothing.
lay off the tyra mrs. bluebell… reach for the remote and change the channel… or better yet, go for a walk. release the tyra energy from your system as you chant, uuuummmmmm. hehe!
i never did think that show was very well researched or executed. try not to let it get to you mrs. b!
It’s obviously way over-simplified, but I think overall it makes a lot of sense. The most heavily-weighted questions are income (#1 reason for divorce = fights about money) and age, which makes sense to me.
I don’t think a low score necessarily “dooms” one to divorce, but if you just heard of 18-year-olds billy joe and bobby sue who work at the local quickie-mart, whose parents are all divorced, I’m sure you’d think they have some tough times ahead of them.
I saw that episode too…pretty lame.
Tyra has definitely turned Ricki Lake.
I think this quiz is also a really bad representation, I would just forget about it if I were you!
Wow, that’s crazy! They really put that on TV? I could see how some of things would affect a marriage, but certainly not make someone ‘doomed for divorce.’ Thanks for sharing — I needed a good laugh today 
I find the religious affiliation question interesting. This is totally unresearched, but my gut is telling me that what matters more than whether or not you have a religious affiliation is whether or not you share spiritual beliefs with your partner. Which is not to say that inter-faith relationships are doomed to divorce either, but they require more understanding, discussions, sometimes more work, and definitely more compromise if the couple has children.
So I would think that two atheists together would stand a better chance at their marriage surviving than, say, a Christian and a Muslim, for example.
Then again, belief in a higher power would probably have an impact on your feelings about divorce, so maybe it’s true. I would expect to find more unhappily married couples among those with a religious faith, and more happily divorced couples among non-believers.
smartl–that religious question bugged me, too. I can see what they were getting at, and maybe I’m just too sensitive, but it seemed like anti-secularism to me. I consider Mr Blueberry and myself to be two very happily-married atheists, who are attuned to each other and our own system of beliefs (even if it does revolve around the good of humanity, ‘live-and-let-live’, and Darwin :-D). I don’t see why the fact that we’re not spiritual would put our marriage at a disadvantage!
Oh, and I gotta admit that I fudged on our score…I gave us the points for ‘income over $50,000′ even though it’s nowhere near close right now, since we’re both still in school and will be making that much in just a few years…we’re short-term po’
Statistics can mean anything you want them to. In my former job, I used to be the person who explained to the sales people “Here’s the numbers, and here’s what you *tell* people they mean.” It’s totally in the interpretation.
The fact that you do those survey items is most likely an indicator of your attitudes and relationship coping skills. But there are plenty of divorcees that would have scored a 10, and just b/c you don’t do those survey items, doesn’t mean that you aren’t equipped w/ the same “life skills” as someone who does — you just may express them differently.
yeah, terrible use of statistics–but I actually think the worst part of it is just how the “scoring” is phrased. Just because a higher percentage of divorces are of people who share some of your experiences (income, background, etc) doesn’t make your marriage any more likely to fail. Definitely jumped the correlation-causation boundary…
Too bad she couldn’t have found some sort of relationship-angled quiz (yk, maybe written by a psychologist based on their experiences counseling). Though still totally a guess, it might’ve made for more interesting/useful TV-watching…
I agree Mrs. Bluebell, what a silly quiz.
It is way, way oversimplifying issues. What about people who have a high paying job but are workaholics? What about folks whose parents are married but miserable?
The Freakonomics author would have a hey-day with this one! A classic example of correlations mixed up with causation.
Sure, having an education, having enough dough, and coming from a “stable” family could be construed as better indicators for a more solid marriage, but please! Lack of commitment, boredom, the age of me-first, and other general stressors don’t restrict by class, age, income level, or any other category!
When you get married, you work at staying together, through thick and thin, and be grateful for the things that don’t add tension and accept those that do as another challenge, not grounds for your marriage to fail.
Oh Tyra. : ) (I suppose we should all be grateful you’re not getting marriage advice from shows like Jerry Springer!)
I get so frustrated when I see that having divorced parents predisposes you to divorce. From personal experience, I believe the opposite, at least in my case. If my parents weren’t divorced, I think that divorce wouldn’t even be on my radar. I wouldn’t think about it- and might just think, oh that can’t happen to me. Because I’ve lived through the crappy effects of divorce I’m very determined to NOT be divorced. I considered it when choosing a husband, I take marriage seriously, and have discussed with my fiance the meaning of our vows a lot.
Boo on this quiz.
Actually, atheists and agnostics have the lowest divorce rates, while evangelical Christians have the highest.
And it is also significant, as someone pointed out, that none of these questions have anything to do with your future spouse. I score in the top range without even having a significant other. Amazing!
Hmm, I’m a little disappointed in Tyra. However, I would like to know what she has to say about my score. I score a 2 (yes, I’m poor with divorced parents), but my fiance is a perfect 10. So what the crap is that supposed to mean?
I think that the point of the religious affiliation question may be less whether you’re going to fight about religion, but more about whether you’re going to stay in the marriage even if you no longer would want to. Sometimes people who really should get divorced probably stick it out because their religion makes them ashamed to get a divorce. So there’s another problem with this quiz- it puts people who are completely miserable with each other but still married in a “fine” category.
And, I agree Tyra is hardly the best source for measuring the stability of your future life. That woman is the most unstable thing ever.
While this show sounds pretty sensationalist, believe it or not, there is actual science (well, social science at rate) behind these questions. Check it out for yourselves http://marriage.rutgers.edu/publications.html. There is an article entitled “What are Your Chances for Divorce?” No cheesy quiz, but some pretty interesting info on who is likely (’likely’ being the operative word) get divorced and who isn’t
And to Emily: Actually, the divorce question is more complicated than it is often made out to be. Individuals who have lasting effects from their parents’ divorces are those who had no warning that there were any marital issues. The theory is that these individuals develop trust issues, because they thought their parents were fine, and suddenly their world is turned upside down. So they can’t rely on the appearance of a good relationship.
In contrast, individuals who knew their parents were having difficulties before they decided to divorce don’t have lasting issues as a result, because there isn’t any cognitive dissonance to deal with.
Re: #2, incomes lower than $50,000 may have higher instances of divorce but very high incomes (I forgot the exact number, but it’s over $100k) also have very high numbers too.
I admit I counted along my points and was relieved when I got 10. However, I then realized these numbers mean jack….how could such a simple quiz predict your relationship?
This is a simple exercise in predicting only what you have data on. We only have data on these superficial questions via the census and other sociological surveys, so it’s all that we can play with. In fact, I could download some US stats and perhaps I’ll find out that cat owners or people who have broken bones have a higher rate of divorce. *sigh*
Oh well, at least that gave me an idea of fun regressions I can run this afternoon!
I totally saw that show and I felt so bad for the couples who were on there. Granted it was obvious they had issues but I thought Tyra Banks opening up that one girl’s overdue bills and putting them on the screen was too much… And the audience egging her on and ripping into the couples… That was sad…
It’s interesting. The only things you have any control over here are waiting until 25 to marry (generally not a bad idea, I think) and trying to achieve financial stability (I guess their line of $50,000 seems like a lot of money in some places but in big cities seems like you’d be struggling).
I scored only 4 points….guess I have to tell my guy that we better start splitting our CD collections.
Oh, Mrs. Bluebell- I saw the episode too! Aparently I am DOOMED FOR DIVORCE. I made my boyfriend take the quiz, and he was “fine.”
I also disagree about the finance part.
Mrs. Bluebell, I also think that the quiz is overly simplistic, but it makes a point, which is that the choices we make in life can have positive and negative impacts on us … but the good news is that we get to keep making new choices. I see it as a news flash for couples on what to look out for as common problems for marriages. The $50,000 thing shocked me at first, until I realized that of course people who are in the upper-middle-class income brackets are more likely to stay married: they are more likely to have enough money not to have to argue all the time about what to spend their too-little money on, like the rest of us, and to be able to afford nice vacations and hobbies that the rest of us cannot afford, to relieve their stress with each other and their kids and professional lives. It doesn’t mean that if you are poor, your marriage cannot last. It does mean that if you are poor, you have stressors in your life that wealthier people simply do not experience. It may also mean that you have a more satisfying career, versus working 2 or 3 minimum-wage jobs, and you have retirement funds and all those other perks that, again, make life easier to cope with for the rich than for the poor. Ultimately, though, it’s all just statistics, and different people and couples will come out all across the map … plus sometimes it’s better for people to divorce than to stay together and be miserable and crazy. And of course other times people who the stats say cannot make it will stay together for many years or even a lifetime. There are way too many factors to put into one simple little quiz; but I like my best friend’s perspective: the foundation has to be not just love, but respect for yourself and for your partner. Best wishes to you & thanks for the thought-provoking blog!
OMG.. I just watched that show today and had to get online to see if I was right on my score. I thought, noway they would allow the highest scoring question to be one based on income. Was this test written by someone making more than 50K?? Seriously, lets look at the Hollywood statistics…I do believe most of them have college educaton and make a considerable amount of money. Many have some kind of religious affiliation and most are over 25…With those things taken into consideration, Hollywood or not, the marriage desn’t work. I’ve found that more money=more power and that power is a hard thing to handle alone. Pair that with all the work that goes into a marriage outside of loads and loads of money (i.e. communication, compassion, time, children, community, family etc ec.) and you’ve got a real combination for disaster…. much higher chances for divorce there, in my opinion. I do agree that the couple should be equal in education, religion, and income and their views on family should be similar , lets base a quiz on those things..
You know how I know that this quiz is bogus? Because agnostics/atheists have the lowest divorce rate in the nation.
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Mrs. Bluebell, New York
Age and Occupation in 07: 26, Finance Manager
Fiance's Age and Occupation: 27, Playing with the cat and/or Consulting
Engagement Date: December 25, 2005
Wedding Date: June 2007
Venue: Bride's family summer home in the Adirondacks
About Me: Trying to find the perfect balance between family tradition (marrying at the house everyone else in my family gets married at), making our's modern, interesting and different from everyone else in my family's, and incorporating some Chinese tradition for my Chinese fiance. I really have no idea what it's going to end up looking like!
Also, I picked Miss Bluebell for my name because I have blue eyes and I'm a loser like that.
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