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Mrs. Snow Cone, Pittsburgh/Johnstown, PA Age and Occupation: 23, Public Health Graduate Student Fiance's Age and Occupation: 23, Engineer Engagement Date: April 9, 2010 Wedding Date: August 2011 Venue: OMOS Church ceremony/Sunnehanna Country Club reception About Me: I’m one of the lucky ones---I met my future husband at the ripe old age of 13, started dating him as a mature woman of 15, and have been enjoying the ride ever since. Here we are, 8 years later, living in Pittsburgh, planning a "homestination" wedding in the place our school romance began---Johnstown, PA. I thrive on talking a mile a minute, eating my weight in chocolate, and internet shopping. I love a lengthy to-do list almost as much as I love a healthy amount of chaos in my life. Mr. Snow Cone and I watch countless episodes of Friends and The West Wing on repeat, root for rival college sports teams, and make each other laugh each and every day. We’re putting together a small-town wedding with a big personality and a classically modern (or modernly classic?) look for 250 of our closest family and friends. It’s been 8+ years in the making, and sometimes I still can’t believe I’m finally getting to marry my high school sweetheart!
About Mrs. Snow Cone

By now, our wedding RSVP deadline has come and gone. And then some. We only have two more pairs of guests to track down, so I feel like that’s a complete enough picture to breakdown our RSVP results. Here we go!

  • Number invited: 276
  • Number attending: 193
  • Decline percentage: 30%

Now that we have the numbers, let’s crunch them. Truthfully speaking, never in a million years did Mr. Snow Cone and I anticipate ending up with a wedding reception with fewer than 200 people. We spent more than a little bit of a time stressing over the guest list, making cuts to give us a morsel of breathing room. We had visions of people uncomfortably squeezed together at tables that were also uncomfortably squeezed together. Lots of tables with lots of people in a moderately-sized room on an August evening—it’s practically a request for someone to pass out! We were definitely worried about attendance, to say the least.

Once the RSVPs started rolling in, we would kind of secretly high-five when we got a “no,” since that meant that we’d have a little bit more room to work with.

Once we had enough declines to update our maximum number of guests attending to 240, our target number, we were quite pleased. But something weird happened once we hit our target number. The “no” replies kept rolling in. Each day our maximum number dropped lower and lower, until we both had the realization that 200 would be a stretch. We were baffled as to how we could be so far off in our estimates—we were shooting for 240; how could 200 become the new reality?!

After giving myself a pep talk to not take these responses personally, I took a look at the guest list. Here’s a more nuanced look at our responses.

Number not attending: 79 (I subtracted the 4 guests still in question)

  • Percentage of empty seats that are from “no” replies: 64%
  • Percentage of empty seats that are from unused +1s: 36%
  • Percentage of empty seats from out of town guests: 63%
  • Percentage of empty seats from in-town guests: 37%

In other words, only 2/3 of the empty seats are from people who flat-out aren’t coming and/or are from out of town, and the other 1/3 are from people who aren’t bringing date and/or are local. Mr. Snow Cone and I decided, when constructing our guest list, to give all of our friends the option of bringing a date; given that a substantial number of our friends now live out of town, it’s not a big surprise that a lot of people chose to pay for one flight instead of bringing along a date who would bear a substantial expense. Moreover, many of our out-of-town friends aren’t in serious relationships; therefore, it’s not shocking that our friends didn’t opt to ask an acquaintance to travel cross-country to attend a wedding of two strangers, paying a hefty amount in the process. When analyzing the results along these two variables, it makes a lot more sense how we ended up with our magic sub-200 number.

All in all, we’re still kind of coming to terms with the fact that our wedding will be a bit smaller than we ever anticipated. But, with that being said, we’re also relieved that there will be more personal space, fewer linen rentals, fewer centerpieces, and more time to be spent with each person.

What was your biggest RSVP surprise?

Tags: pittsburgh, rsvp |
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13 Responses to “Crunching the Snow Cone RSVP Numbers”

1.
irishbride2be
Member
irishbride2be (message)  432 posts, Helper bee

This is very interesting. I am curios to know what my numbers will be since. Half of the guest list will be out of town. So I am nervous about the amount of NOs. We are inviting 150 and would really like it to be 100. So we’ll see.

 
2.
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Member
Lizziemom (message)  42 posts, Newbee

I have planned more than a few weddings (other than my own one) and special events. The best rule of RSVPs is to expect a 2/3 attending response rate. You can expect a little more “regrets” if a majority of guests are traveling from out of town. Destination weddings are their own beasts; but most of the brides I know already “knew” who was coming when the invites were mailed - so there is usually little surprise for these events.

 
3.
MissMargie
Member
MissMargie (message)  767 posts, Busy bee

We just went through this ourselves SC, we had always envisioned 125-130 and are now looking at 100. We’re totally cool with it for the reasons you mentioned above but still surprised at how much we overestimated!

 
4.
Miss Seal
Bee
Miss Seal (message)  1,179 posts, Bumble bee

Thanks for the helpful numbers, SC! We’re inviting around the same # of guests (281). I’ve always imagined that around 250 will show up (I know that’s a super low decline rate but I’d rather be pleasantly surprised, as far as budget is concerned, than not). I’m not saying I hope people decline, because I’d likely be secretly a bit hurt—but I would also be kind of relieved if we ended up in the 200 region. Thanks for sharing, lady ;)

 
5.
Bee Icon
Bee
Mrs. Pain au Chocolat (message)  1,698 posts, Bumble bee

Although it’s a bummer not to have everyone you want at your wedding, a smaller guest list is a blessing in disguise. You will have less social obligations which frees you up for having more fun/soaking it all in. I’m a big advocate of soaking it all in!

 
6.
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Bee
Miss Pony (message)  4,176 posts, Honey bee

This is kind of relieving since I am now in the waiting game for RSVPs! This sounds like the perfect number for your party!

 
7.
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Member
kamiie (message)  115 posts, Blushing bee

I invited 257. 90% of my guest were from out of town so we ended up with 127 which was perfect b/c I estimated 125.

 
8.
Bee Icon
Bee
Miss Funnel Cake (message)  690 posts, Busy bee

Ooh, I should think about crunching some numbers when our invites go out! 70% sounds like a pretty normal decline rate, and actually what we are expecting for our Ohioan guests. I’m sure the decline rate is going to be exponentially more for the ex-US guests!

Thanks for sharing! Near 200 guests still sounds like a BIG party to me. :D

 
9.
Miss Winter
Member
Miss Winter (message)  260 posts, Helper bee

I’m super nervous about this issue. We are inviting 300 and my FI thinks we’ll still get about 250. I think we’ll be lucky with 230 attending. Can’t control that too much though and have to roll with it! It will be amazing no matter what!

 
10.
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Bee
Mrs. Hippo (message)  1,009 posts, Bumble bee

I was totally the same way. I always assumed we would be at 120, but our numbers were right under 100. The +1s were a big factor. We gave them generously thinking people would use them… not so much.

 
11.
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Member
kristophine (message)  302 posts, Helper bee

Interesting! I’m kind of freaked out because we want 75-100 people and I don’t know whether to invite 90 or 115. Someday I’d like to see RSVPs parsed by not only in vs. out of town, but also by relationship. How many aunts/auncles v. cousins accept?

I suppose to really know I’d need to construct a ranking system in which both my fiance and I evaluated how close we felt to each potential guest and then I could run a regression using perceived relationship closeness to predict attendance. I could add in another variable denoting biological closeness in terms of degree of genes shared…

Why, yes, I AM a huge stats nerd. How did you know?

 
12.
Mrs. Tartlet
Bee
Mrs. Tartlet (message)  3,207 posts, Sugar bee

Although we were guilty of the secret high five as well, any “no” responses still came with a twinge of sadness. I’m sorry that you have less people than anticipated, but I agree with Mrs. Pain au Chocolat that it could be a blessing in disguise!

 
13.
mrsbowieii
Member
mrsbowieii (message)  693 posts, Busy bee

We wanted to be around 160 with our list and we invited 215 and so far we have only received 1 declined so I hope our luck kicks in soon.

 

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Mrs. Snow Cone
Mrs. Snow Cone

Mrs. Snow Cone, Pittsburgh/Johnstown, PA Age and Occupation: 23, Public Health Graduate Student Fiance's Age and Occupation: 23, Engineer Engagement Date: April 9, 2010 Wedding Date: August 2011 Venue: OMOS Church ceremony/Sunnehanna Country Club reception About Me: I’m one of the lucky ones---I met my future husband at the ripe old age of 13, started dating him as a mature woman of 15, and have been enjoying the ride ever since. Here we are, 8 years later, living in Pittsburgh, planning a "homestination" wedding in the place our school romance began---Johnstown, PA. I thrive on talking a mile a minute, eating my weight in chocolate, and internet shopping. I love a lengthy to-do list almost as much as I love a healthy amount of chaos in my life. Mr. Snow Cone and I watch countless episodes of Friends and The West Wing on repeat, root for rival college sports teams, and make each other laugh each and every day. We’re putting together a small-town wedding with a big personality and a classically modern (or modernly classic?) look for 250 of our closest family and friends. It’s been 8+ years in the making, and sometimes I still can’t believe I’m finally getting to marry my high school sweetheart!

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