So, as you guys know, Stallion and I invited 241 people to our wedding. (I’m dying. SO. MANY. PEOPLE.) But how many of them will actually show up?
There are a couple different rules of thumb you can follow to estimate your wedding attendance:
 You can assume 100% of your guests will show. Obviously, this is unrealistic, but it gives you a nice cushion in your budget, which is always a good thing. We did this when looking for venues—better to have room to move around than to have everyone squished in like sardines, you know?
 You can follow the 80% rule. I’ve seen this statistic thrown around in pretty much every wedding planning resource on Earth, so it probably holds some water. According to this method, Stallion and I will have 192 guests attend the wedding.
 Destination wedding? Word on the street is that you can assume a 65% attendance rate. While Cape May isn’t what comes to mind when most people think of a destination wedding, it may as well be for our guests—the closest guests still have to travel two hours to get there. According to this method, we’ll have 157 guests make the trip.
 Got a mix of local and outoftown guests? Combine the above attendance rates by taking 80% of your local guests and 65% of the outoftowners. We don’t have any local guests, so this method doesn’t apply to us.
 Review each individual guest, assign them a statistical probability of attendance, and use the weighted head count to estimate your total attendance. Obviously, we took this route. Anything involving fun with Excel is a mustdo in my book.
In the interest of full disclosure, I did not come up with this method myself. Actually, I thought I learned about it from another Bee blogger, but I can’t find anything in the archives. I first read about it back when Stallion and I got engaged, a year and a half ago, and I promptly filed it away in my brain without bothering to note where I found it. But wherever it came from, I’m sharing it with you all now, because I think it’s a pretty handy way to estimate your head count.
Anyway. Like I said, review each individual guest on your list. Are they probably attending, maybe attending, or probably not attending? We dropped each guest into one of these buckets, and then we assigned each bucket a statistical probability. The “probably attendings” were weighted at 90%, the “maybe attendings” were weighted at 50%, and the “probably not attendings” were weighted at 10%. Add up the weighted head count, and you have your estimate!
Here it is in action (personal photo):
 Columns A through C are pretty selfexplanatory.
 Column D has the percentages that correspond with our probability buckets. Leslie and Ben are probably attending, MonaLisa is probably not attending, and Ron could go either way.
 Column E was populated by multiplying the guest count in column C by the probability in column D. Not an Excel wizard? The formula is simple: =C5*D5 (assuming you’re calculating for Leslie and Ben in row 5). Once you’ve calculated it in one cell, click the lower right hand corner of the cell and drag it down to populate the column for the rest of your guests.
 Cell B1, the total number of invited guests, is the sum of column C, using the formula =SUM(C:C)
 Cell B2, the estimated number of guests attending, is the sum of column E, using the formula =SUM(E:E)
 Cell B3 estimates the percentage of guests attending, using the formula =(B2/B1)*100
In conclusion, of the 15 guests I invited from Pawnee, I’m likely to have 9.5 attend, giving me a 63% attendance rate. Gee, I wonder who the half person will be.
This method is good if you know your guest list well—your best friend from college, for example, is way more likely to attend than a distant cousin you haven’t seen in 15 years. And if you’re not sure about a particular guest, that’s what the maybe/50% bucket is for.
Under this method, Stallion and I have an estimated head count of 160, giving us an attendance rate of 66%, which is right in line with the standard 65% estimate for a destination wedding. (In other words, our detailed analysis of the guest list was more or less pointless.) Since RSVPs are still coming in, I can’t say for sure where we’ll shake out numberswise, but so far, things are pretty much in line with our estimates. Not that that’s saying much, considering the RSVP deadline is still a month away.
How did you estimate your wedding attendance? How close was your estimate to the actual attendance rate?
Mrs. Filly
 Location:
 Boston, MA
 Occupation:
 Auditor
 Wedding Date:
 April 2014
 Venue:
 The Grand Hotel, Cape May, NJ
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I think Jerry/Larry is definitely your half person.
I love that you used Parks & Recs as your example guests. I really hope Leslie Knope and Ron Swanson are at your wedding, they would absolutely make it! LOL. We are definitely going to go through our Google spreadsheet and try your method for our DW…I’m scared to invite too many people, just in case they all decide to come!!
Ahhh, the fun of guest lists and RSVPs… I hope everyone meets your expectations!
This is what Mr Big did when we were sorting out our guest list. I sat there and looked blankly at the screen as he did it LOL!! I am useless at Excel.
Funny anecdote: I read ‘guest mating’ instead of ‘guestimating’ and did a double take.
Ahh I like this, I should try it! We’re still looking at 100% attendance for space/budget reasons, but the guest list is still growing (and I cry every time I hear someone can’t come, haha). I don’t think any of those general rules work for us, but this one should!
I love a good excel formula! So far, almost every member of my family (all of whom have to fly) will be making the trip, which was a total surprise. It will be interesting to see where I end up in the end.
I’ll be so interested to see if your method was a good predictor!
I did a simpler method where I went down my list and just did a realistic guess of attending or not, and I’m thinking that’s going to be a good ballpark for us. Although I love spreadsheets so chances are I’ll try this just to see how it comes out…
I am getting married in 2 weeks, we invited 248 and have 189 coming, so very similar to yours. I agree it is wayyyy too many to invite, but it happens!!
Like the other Miss P before me, we pretty much just did an estimate based on individuals, which I think will be pretty close.
Okay, so I just ran your formula for my people and, probably because I just put down 50% for anybody who wasn’t in the bridal party or living in another continent it told me that of my 199 invitees, 105 will accept, at a rate of 52.76%. I’m terrible at predicting other people’s choices, though, so pretty much FI’s entire family got 50% because I’ve only met them twice.
Ah… love this! I’ve never seen someone take guestimating to such a mathematical level.
I did something very similar! I categorized each person as a definitely (x 1), probably (x .8), maybe (x .5), probably not (x .2) and no (x 0). So far…well, right now, let’s just say we must either really be loved, or people really love Disney, because our attendance is at about 90%…yikes! I’m sure it will go down as we get closer….right….RIGHT???
LOVE the pawnee example! HAHAHA!!
I’m in awe of your method, Filly! I can’t believe you think spreadsheets are fun, because I LOATHE them. We just went with the 80% guideline. We’ll see how it shakes out, but I’m sure your estimate will be WAY closer than mine.
Love the Parks and Rec reference
Curious as to how this worked out for you! Happy marriage, btw!
Please tell me Ben & Leslie showed up!
So happy to find this! I am stressing over the guest list!
So I did this last night… just b/c I love excel/formulas and I thought I could pretty accurately dump each of my guests into one of those buckets. It was super interesting b/c like you, I did all that math and the answer shook out to actually follow the wedding planning 20% no’s rule of thumb — which incidentally makes me very happy b/c I’d much rather have 157 guests than 197!